Market
How will U.S.-Taiwan military interactions change by December 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Increase in military interactions • 25%
Decrease in military interactions • 25%
No change in military interactions • 25%
Complete cessation of military interactions • 25%
Official military or government reports, verified news sources
Story
China Demands U.S. Halt Arms Sales, Military Contacts with Taiwan
Dec 2, 2024, 08:32 AM
China has issued a strong warning to the United States, demanding an immediate end to arms sales to Taiwan and the cessation of all official exchanges and military contacts with the region. The Chinese government has reiterated its firm opposition to any form of official interaction between the U.S. and Taiwan, urging Washington to fulfill its commitment to not support 'Taiwan independence.' A Chinese defense spokesperson further emphasized that the U.S. should not aid or abet separatist activities in Taiwan.
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Increase in military aid • 25%
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Strengthened military agreements • 25%
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No change in agreements • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increased support for Taiwan • 25%
Decreased support for Taiwan • 25%
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Decrease support for Taiwan • 25%
Increase support for Taiwan • 25%
Maintain current policy • 25%
Shift to a neutral stance • 25%
Policy reversal • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Decreased support • 25%
Increased support • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Significant conflict • 25%
Diplomatic shift without military change • 25%
Decreased military support • 25%
Increased military support • 25%
Maintained current level of support • 25%
No change • 25%
Minor deterioration • 25%
Significant deterioration • 25%
Improvement • 25%
Neutral stance • 25%
Other • 25%
Increased support for Taiwan • 25%
Condemnation of U.S. actions • 25%
Strengthening ties with Japan • 25%
Strengthening ties with US • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Strengthening ties with EU • 25%