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How will Turkey's foreign policy in Syria change by end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased military presence • 25%
Decreased military presence • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increased diplomatic efforts • 25%
Official Turkish government statements or actions in Syria reported by credible news agencies
Story
Biden Lifts Sanctions on Turkey, Revises 2019 Executive Order 13894 Tied to Operation Peace Spring
Jan 17, 2025, 06:31 AM
U.S. President Joe Biden has revised an executive order originally issued in 2019 during Turkey's Peace Spring Operation in Syria, which imposed sanctions on Turkey. The updated order removes all references to Turkey, effectively lifting the sanctions and easing restrictions that had been in place since the original executive order, signed by then-President Donald Trump on October 14, 2019. The revisions also include the removal of strong rhetoric associated with the operation and the lifting of visa restrictions against Turkey.
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Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Countering ISIS • 25%
Cooperation with the U.S. • 25%
Elimination of PKK/YPG • 25%
Turkey gains significant influence in Syria • 25%
Turkey withdraws from Syrian affairs • 25%
Status quo remains • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Turkey withdraws influence from Syria • 25%
Continued military presence without government change • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Turkey establishes a friendly government in Syria • 25%
Decreased military engagement • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Diplomatic resolution sought • 25%
Increased military engagement • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Peace agreement signed • 25%
Status quo remains • 25%
Turkey withdraws influence from Syria • 25%
Other • 25%
Turkey strengthens control in Syria • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Improved bilateral relations • 25%
Deterioration in relations • 25%
Formal alliance or treaty • 25%
Security cooperation • 25%
Increased economic involvement • 25%
Strengthened diplomatic ties • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Stalemate with no significant gains • 25%
Successful operation with Turkish control • 25%
Operation leads to significant international backlash • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Deterioration in relations • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Continued informal talks • 25%
Formal diplomatic relations established • 25%
Conflict escalation • 25%
Stable control • 25%
Partial control • 25%
Loss of control • 25%
No intervention • 25%
Success in preventing fragmentation • 25%
Failure to achieve goals • 25%
Partial success • 25%