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What will ByteDance do in response to the U.S. TikTok ban by March 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Sells TikTok to a non-China-based company • 25%
Negotiates a delay or solution with U.S. government • 25%
Continues operations without compliance • 25%
Permanently shuts down TikTok in the U.S. • 25%
Official announcements from ByteDance or credible news outlets
Story
Supreme Court Upholds TikTok Ban Citing National Security, Unless ByteDance Sells
Jan 17, 2025, 03:40 PM
The U.S. Supreme Court on Friday unanimously upheld a federal law that will ban TikTok starting Sunday unless the app is sold by its China-based parent company, ByteDance. The court ruled that national security concerns related to TikTok's ties to China outweigh potential limitations on free speech for the app's 170 million U.S. users. The decision comes as President-elect Donald Trump has expressed intentions to negotiate a solution, while the Biden administration has indicated it will not enforce the ban on its last day in office. The law, passed with bipartisan support, aims to address concerns over data collection practices and the potential for Chinese government influence on the platform. Without a sale, new users will be unable to download TikTok, and existing users will not receive updates, eventually rendering the app unusable.
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Wins legal challenge and resumes operations • 25%
Remains banned throughout 2025 • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Sells TikTok U.S. operations • 25%
Partial divestment or restructuring • 25%
Complete divestment from TikTok • 25%
Other actions • 25%
Legal appeal and no divestment • 25%
Negotiate settlement • 25%
File new lawsuit • 25%
No major action • 25%
Comply with divestment • 25%
Partnership with US company • 25%
No action taken • 25%
Divestment of TikTok • 25%
Legal challenge • 25%
Comply with divestment • 25%
Seek further legal action • 25%
Negotiate with U.S. government • 25%
Other response • 25%
ByteDance retains TikTok • 25%
Other action • 25%
TikTok operations suspended • 25%
ByteDance sells TikTok • 25%
TikTok Banned • 25%
Legal Battle Continues • 25%
Political Resolution • 25%
Divestment • 25%
Seek further legal action • 25%
Divest ownership • 25%
Comply without divestiture • 25%
No action taken • 25%
Awaiting Supreme Court Decision • 25%
Finds Alternative Solution • 25%
Divests TikTok • 25%
Does Not Divest • 25%
Other actions • 25%
Divest from ByteDance • 25%
Comply with the ban • 25%
Challenge in court • 25%