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Who will control Panama Canal by end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
U.S. Control • 25%
Chinese Control • 25%
Panamanian Control • 25%
Other • 25%
Official announcements from the Panamanian government or international trade organizations
Story
Trump Won't Rule Out Military Force to Gain Greenland, Panama Canal; Cites China's Influence
Jan 7, 2025, 05:35 PM
President-elect Donald Trump on Tuesday declined to rule out the use of military force or economic coercion to gain control of Greenland and the Panama Canal, emphasizing their importance to U.S. economic and national security. When asked by a reporter whether he could assure the world that he would not use military or economic means to assert control over these areas, Trump responded, "No, I can't assure you on either of those two." He added, "We need them for economic security... It might be that you'll have to do something." Trump expressed concerns about China's influence over the Panama Canal, stating, "The Panama Canal is vital to our country. It's being operated by China. China!" He reaffirmed his ambition to expand America's global footprint, suggesting that military action might be necessary.
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Panama retains control • 25%
China gains control • 25%
Other entity gains control • 25%
U.S. gains control • 25%
Another country • 25%
No new perceived controller • 25%
China • 25%
Russia • 25%
Operational changes • 25%
No changes • 25%
Joint operations with another country • 25%
Ownership change • 25%
Other • 25%
Panama • 25%
China • 25%
United States • 25%
No negotiations initiated • 25%
Panama agrees to U.S. control • 25%
Panama rejects U.S. control • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
China • 25%
United States • 25%
Other • 25%
Panama • 25%
Successful negotiation • 25%
Other • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
International mediation • 25%
Maintain neutrality • 25%
Strengthen ties with U.S. • 25%
Strengthen ties with China • 25%
Seek other international partnerships • 25%
Impose economic sanctions • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Reclaim control • 25%
Increase military presence • 25%