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What will be the outcome of U.S.-Panama negotiations over the Panama Canal by end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Panama agrees to U.S. control • 25%
Panama rejects U.S. control • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
No negotiations initiated • 25%
Official announcements from the U.S. and Panama governments or major news outlets
Story
Trump Threatens Invasion of Panama Canal, Reiterates Desire to Buy Greenland for National Security Reasons, 100% Serious
Dec 23, 2024, 09:00 PM
President-elect Donald Trump has reiterated his desire for the United States to acquire Greenland and has threatened to take control of the Panama Canal. During recent statements, Trump described the acquisition of Greenland as an 'absolute necessity' for national security and suggested that the U.S. should consider an invasion of Panama to regain control of the canal. His remarks have sparked discussions about potential expansionist policies, raising concerns among international observers. Both the government of Greenland and Panama's president have rejected Trump's claims, indicating a lack of support for his proposals. Sources close to Trump have stated he is '100% serious' about these ambitions, which are seen as part of a broader strategy to counter perceived threats from China and Russia.
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U.S. regains control • 25%
Panama retains control with fee reduction • 25%
Joint control agreement • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Panama agrees to U.S. demands • 25%
Negotiations continue without resolution • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Panama agrees • 25%
Panama rejects • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
US withdraws proposal • 25%
U.S. gains control of canal • 25%
Panama reduces fees • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Reclaim control • 25%
Increase military presence • 25%
Impose economic sanctions • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Fees reduced • 25%
Fees unchanged • 25%
U.S. control over canal • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Worsened relations • 25%
No change • 25%
Other • 25%
U.S. gains control • 25%
China gains control • 25%
Panama retains control • 25%
Other entity gains control • 25%
Strengthen ties with U.S. • 25%
Strengthen ties with China • 25%
Maintain neutrality • 25%
Seek other international partnerships • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Military presence increase • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Demand return of the canal • 25%
Negotiate lower fees • 25%
Increase tariffs on Panama • 25%
No significant action • 25%