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What will be TikTok's status in the U.S. on January 20, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Banned • 25%
Operational with restrictions • 25%
Operational without restrictions • 25%
Under appeal • 25%
Public availability and operational status of TikTok in the U.S.
Story
Supreme Court Likely to Uphold TikTok Ban by January 19 Unless ByteDance Divests, Affecting 170 Million Users
Jan 10, 2025, 06:35 PM
The U.S. Supreme Court appears likely to uphold a federal law that could ban TikTok in the United States starting January 19, unless the app's Chinese parent company, ByteDance, divests its ownership. During oral arguments, justices from both sides of the political spectrum expressed skepticism about TikTok's challenge to the law, which is based on First Amendment grounds. The justices seemed persuaded by the government's argument that national security concerns related to TikTok's ties to China override free speech considerations. Chief Justice John Roberts highlighted the main concern as TikTok's ownership by ByteDance, which is required to cooperate with Chinese intelligence operations. If the law is upheld, TikTok could 'go dark' on January 19, affecting its 170 million American users. However, President-elect Donald Trump, who has 14.7 million followers on the platform and will be inaugurated on January 20, has requested a delay to negotiate a 'political resolution.'
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Similar markets
Other outcome • 25%
TikTok banned • 25%
TikTok continues operations without change • 25%
TikTok sold to U.S. buyer • 25%
Banned in the U.S. • 25%
Sold to U.S. company • 25%
Operational changes without sale • 25%
Remains with ByteDance • 25%
TikTok is banned from U.S. app stores • 25%
ByteDance sells TikTok's U.S. operations • 25%
TikTok wins appeal and continues operations • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Operations cease • 25%
Acquired by Project Liberty • 25%
Continues under ByteDance • 25%
Other acquisition • 25%
TikTok remains operational with ByteDance ownership • 25%
Other • 25%
TikTok is banned • 25%
TikTok remains operational with new ownership • 25%
Removed from Google only • 25%
Not removed from either store • 25%
Removed from both stores • 25%
Removed from Apple only • 25%
Fully operational • 25%
Partially restricted • 25%
Banned • 25%
Other status • 25%
TikTok sold to an approved buyer • 25%
Supreme Court delays or overturns the ban • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Supreme Court upholds ban and TikTok shuts down • 25%
Banned • 25%
Operational without restrictions • 25%
Other status • 25%
Operational with restrictions • 25%
Shut down • 25%
Sold to a US company • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Continues without changes • 25%
Ban • 25%
Negotiated settlement • 25%
Sale • 25%
No change • 25%