Loading...
Market
What will be TikTok's legal status in the US by December 31, 2025?
2
Tom Cotton•Pete Ricketts•Cotton•Senate Intelligence Committee•GOP•TikTok•Donald Trump•Arkansas•Nebraska•ByteDance•Communist China
Resolution / Starting Odds
TikTok remains banned • 25%
ByteDance sells TikTok • 25%
TikTok operates with restrictions • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official announcements from the US government, ByteDance, or credible news outlets
Story
Senators Cotton and Ricketts Oppose TikTok Ban Extension, Demand ByteDance Sale to Sever China Ties
Jan 19, 2025, 02:29 PM
Senators Tom Cotton and Pete Ricketts, with Cotton serving as the Chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee and part of GOP leadership, have taken a firm stance against extending the effective date of the TikTok ban, despite indications from former President Donald Trump that he might seek to delay it. The senators, representing Arkansas (R-AR) and Nebraska (R-NE) respectively, argue that with the law now in effect, there is no legal basis for any kind of extension. They emphasize that for TikTok to operate legally in the future, ByteDance must agree to a sale that meets the law's qualified-divestiture requirements, completely severing ties with Communist China. This position is supported by the assertion that ByteDance has not shown significant progress toward a qualified divestiture, as required by the law.
View original story
Similar markets
No resolution • 25%
Legal resolution favoring TikTok • 25%
Negotiated settlement • 25%
Legal resolution favoring US government • 25%
Unrestricted Operation • 25%
Partial Restrictions • 25%
Complete Ban • 25%
Other • 25%
Sold to a US company • 25%
Remains banned • 25%
Resumes operations • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
TikTok is sold and remains operational • 25%
TikTok is banned and becomes inaccessible • 25%
TikTok voluntarily shuts down operations • 25%
TikTok remains operational without changes • 25%
Operational without change • 25%
Permanently banned • 25%
Temporarily suspended • 25%
Operational with restrictions • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Banned in the US • 25%
Operational under new ownership • 25%
Remains operational without changes • 25%
Banned • 25%
Divested • 25%
Unchanged • 25%
TikTok available with ByteDance divestment • 25%
TikTok remains available without changes • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
TikTok banned in the US • 25%
Other • 25%
Banned and shut down • 25%
Operating under temporary extension • 25%
Operating under ByteDance • 25%
Sold and operating • 25%
Banned • 25%
90-day extension granted • 25%
Other • 25%
Deal finalized • 25%
TikTok is banned • 25%
TikTok remains available without ByteDance divestment • 25%
TikTok remains available with ByteDance divestment • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
TikTok is banned again • 25%
TikTok sold to a U.S. company • 25%
TikTok remains operational • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
TikTok is banned • 25%
Other • 25%
TikTok remains operational with ByteDance ownership • 25%
TikTok remains operational with new ownership • 25%