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Market
What will be TikTok's availability status in the U.S. by April 30, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Fully operational • 25%
Partially operational • 25%
Still banned • 25%
Other • 25%
Official TikTok announcements, major news outlets
Story
TikTok Alerts 170 Million U.S. Users of Temporary Unavailability Starting January 19 Ahead of Trump's January 20 Inauguration
Jan 19, 2025, 03:22 AM
TikTok has begun notifying its U.S. users that the app will become 'temporarily unavailable' starting January 19, 2025, coinciding with the government's ban. This alert signals that the app could cease operations just before President-elect Donald Trump's inauguration on January 20. Approximately 170 million Americans use TikTok, and the app's notifications indicate that Trump has expressed intentions to collaborate on a solution to reinstate TikTok once he takes office. As the ban approaches, users are experiencing access issues, with the app stating it is not currently available.
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Granted Extension • 25%
Operations continue as is • 25%
Sold to a US company • 25%
Banned • 25%
Other • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Sold to U.S. Entity • 25%
TikTok available with ByteDance divestment • 25%
TikTok banned in the US • 25%
Other • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Divested • 25%
Banned • 25%
Unchanged • 25%
TikTok remains available without changes • 25%
Operational under new ownership • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Banned in the US • 25%
Remains operational without changes • 25%
Continues operations without changes • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Sold to another company • 25%
Banned • 25%
Permanently banned • 25%
New ownership announced • 25%
Temporarily suspended • 25%
Continues operation without interruption • 25%
Other • 25%
TikTok remains operational with new ownership • 25%
TikTok is banned • 25%
TikTok remains operational with ByteDance ownership • 25%
TikTok remains operational without changes • 25%
TikTok is sold and remains operational • 25%
TikTok is banned and becomes inaccessible • 25%
TikTok voluntarily shuts down operations • 25%
Continues operations • 33%
Permanently shut down • 33%
Temporarily suspended • 33%
Other status • 25%
Operations ceased • 25%
Sold to another company • 25%
Continues under ByteDance • 25%
TikTok resumes operations • 25%
TikTok remains banned • 25%
TikTok divested to a U.S. company • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Under new joint venture • 25%
Fully operational • 25%
Partially restricted • 25%
Banned • 25%
TikTok is sold to a U.S. company • 25%
TikTok is banned • 25%
TikTok remains operational • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
TikTok is banned • 25%
TikTok remains available without changes • 25%
TikTok remains available under new ownership • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Continues operation with restrictions • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Continues operation without restrictions • 25%
Shuts down on January 19 • 25%