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What will be the outcome of Ukrainian drone assistance to HTS in Syria by December 31, 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
HTS gains significant ground • 25%
HTS maintains current position • 25%
HTS loses ground • 25%
Other • 25%
Analysis of military reports and news coverage
Story
Ukraine Sends 20 Operators, 150 Drones to Aid HTS in Syria
Dec 11, 2024, 03:50 AM
Ukrainian intelligence has reportedly sent 20 experienced drone operators and approximately 150 first-person-view (FPV) drones to Idlib, Syria, about four to five weeks ago to assist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a leading rebel group, in its offensive against the Syrian regime. According to the Washington Post, these drones played a 'modest' role in the fall of Syrian dictator Assad. The move is seen as part of a coordinated effort to support the Syrian opposition, with the tactics and technology used by HTS resembling those employed by Ukraine in its conflict.
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Significant impact • 25%
Minimal impact • 25%
No impact • 25%
Moderate impact • 25%
HTS gains significant territory • 25%
No significant change • 25%
HTS loses territory • 25%
HTS maintains current status • 25%
Sanctions on Ukraine • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Condemnation by UN • 25%
Support from NATO • 25%
Limited effectiveness due to countermeasures • 25%
Successful targeting of power plants • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Neutralized by Ukrainian defenses • 25%
Minimal damage • 25%
Civilian casualties • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Significant damage to infrastructure • 25%
Enhanced Russian air defenses • 25%
Other • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Increased Russian airstrikes • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Partial stability • 25%
Stability achieved • 25%
Increased instability • 25%