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Will HTS rebels gain significant control in Idlib with Ukrainian aid by June 2025?
4
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Reports from international news agencies and independent observers in Syria
Story
Ukraine Aids HTS Rebels in Syria with FPV Drones in Early November
Dec 11, 2024, 09:14 AM
Ukrainian intelligence has reportedly provided support to the Syrian opposition group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in Idlib, Syria, by sending approximately 20 experienced drone operators and around 150 first-person view (FPV) drones in early November, according to The Washington Post, citing unnamed sources. The move is seen as part of Kyiv's strategy to undermine Russian influence in Syria and was aimed at supporting the rebels' offensive against the Syrian army. While the support was not instrumental in overthrowing the Assad government, it has been noted as an attempt to weaken Russia on other fronts.
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Similar markets
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
HTS maintains current position • 25%
Other • 25%
HTS loses ground • 25%
HTS gains significant ground • 25%
Moderate impact • 25%
No impact • 25%
Minimal impact • 25%
Significant impact • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Other diplomatic response • 25%
Sanctions or military action • 25%
Recognition by major powers • 25%
Continued isolation • 25%
HTS retains control • 25%
Government forces regain control • 25%
Stalemate with no clear control • 25%
Other rebel groups take control • 25%
