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What will be the outcome of the HTS offensive in Northern Syria by September 30, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
HTS gains significant territory • 25%
Stalemate with no significant changes • 25%
Syrian Army regains control • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Reports from international news agencies and official statements from involved parties
Story
Turkey Allegedly Backed HTS Offensive in Northern Syria Last Week
Dec 7, 2024, 06:37 PM
U.S. officials believe that Turkey has given Hayʼat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) the green light to launch an offensive in Syria, according to a CNN report. The operation, which began last week, targets the Syrian Army and its allies in Northern Syria. The offensive is reported to have escalated significantly, leading to what is described as the imminent collapse of the Assad regime.
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HTS loses control • 25%
Prolonged stalemate • 25%
HTS solidifies control • 25%
Peace agreement reached • 25%
Syrian regime regains control • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
HTS gains significant territory • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Government forces regain control • 25%
HTS retains control • 25%
Stalemate with no clear control • 25%
Other rebel groups take control • 25%
Increased influence • 25%
No change • 25%
Decreased influence • 25%
Disbanded • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Continued isolation • 25%
Sanctions or military action • 25%
Other diplomatic response • 25%
Recognition by major powers • 25%
SDF evacuates with safe passage • 25%
Conflict escalates • 25%
Negotiations lead to a compromise • 25%
SDF refuses to evacuate • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Military intervention • 25%
Increased sanctions on HTS • 25%