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What will be the outcome of Turkish diplomatic efforts in Aleppo by December 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Consulate opens and functions normally • 25%
Consulate opens but faces significant operational challenges • 25%
Consulate opening is delayed • 25%
Consulate does not open • 25%
Reports from international diplomatic sources and news agencies
Story
Erdogan Warns Kurdish Militants: Lay Down Arms or Be Buried; Turkey to Open Aleppo Consulate
Dec 25, 2024, 10:44 AM
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan warned that Kurdish militants in Syria must either lay down their arms or be buried with them in Syrian soil. He referred to the militants as 'separatist killers' and emphasized that Turkey will confront all terrorist organizations and their supporters seeking to exploit circumstances in the region. Erdogan also announced plans to open a Turkish consulate in Aleppo amid escalating tensions between Turkey-backed Syrian fighters and Kurdish militants.
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Improved relations with Syrian government • 25%
Increased tensions with Syrian government • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other • 25%
Consulate opened and diplomatic relations improved • 25%
Consulate opened but relations remain tense • 25%
Consulate not opened due to diplomatic issues • 25%
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Successful peace agreement • 25%
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Peace agreement signed • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
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Strengthened diplomatic ties • 25%
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Security cooperation • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Improved bilateral relations • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Deterioration in relations • 25%
Formal alliance or treaty • 25%
Agreement on border security • 25%
Agreement on refugee return • 25%
No significant agreements reached • 25%
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Successful Constitutional Reform • 25%
Increased Security Cooperation • 25%
Deterioration in Relations • 25%
Status Quo Maintained • 25%
Complete success with full control established • 25%
Partial success with some areas controlled • 25%
Stalemate with no significant change • 25%
Failure with loss of territory • 25%
Ceasefire reached • 25%
Continued military engagement • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
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Military cooperation • 25%
Economic cooperation • 25%
Diplomatic initiative • 25%
No significant outcome • 25%
Successful mediation • 25%
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Increased military engagement • 25%
Diplomatic resolution with SDF • 25%
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Formal agreement reached • 25%
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