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What will be the outcome of Turkey and Syria's demand for PKK/YPG disarmament by December 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
PKK/YPG disarms completely • 25%
PKK/YPG partially disarms • 25%
PKK/YPG refuses to disarm • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official announcements from Turkish and Syrian governments, corroborated by major news agencies
Story
Turkey and New Syrian Administration Unite Against PKK/YPG, Demand Disarmament or Face Extinction
Dec 26, 2024, 09:02 AM
Recent developments in Syria indicate a shift in the stance of both Ankara and Damascus towards the PKK/YPG terrorist organization. The Turkish Ministry of National Defense has stated that the PKK/YPG must either disarm or face extinction, emphasizing a new era in Syria that prioritizes Syrian sovereignty. Reports suggest that Syrian armed forces have decided to dissolve existing factions and unify under a single command, signaling a potential end for the PKK/YPG. This collaborative approach between Turkey and Syria has garnered attention in Western media, with reports highlighting their newfound common ground against the PKK/YPG. The Ministry of National Defense reiterated that the PKK/YPG has no viable options left and must comply with the demands of the new Syrian administration.
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Syria disbands YPG • 25%
Turkey conducts military action • 25%
Diplomatic agreement reached • 25%
Status quo remains • 25%
Syria takes action independently • 25%
Turkey intervenes militarily • 25%
Joint action by Syria and Turkey • 25%
No significant action taken • 25%
Significant reduction in PKK/YPG activity • 25%
No significant change in PKK/YPG activity • 25%
Increase in PKK/YPG activity • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
YPG disbanded • 25%
YPG relocated • 25%
YPG remains • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Successful elimination of PKK/YPG presence • 25%
Significant reduction of PKK/YPG activities • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increased PKK/YPG activities • 25%
Complete elimination • 25%
Partial reduction • 25%
No significant change • 25%
PKK/YPG gains strength • 25%
Complete success • 25%
Partial success • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Failure • 25%
Full withdrawal completed • 25%
Partial withdrawal • 25%
Withdrawal not completed • 25%
Agreement renegotiated • 25%
Peace agreement reached • 25%
Continued military conflict • 25%
Ceasefire without formal agreement • 25%
Other resolution • 25%