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What will be the outcome of Turkey's potential military action in Kobani by June 30, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Turkey gains control of Kobani • 25%
Kurdish forces retain control • 25%
Stalemate with no clear control • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Reports from major news outlets on the situation in Kobani
Story
Turkey Masses Troops Near Kobani, Raising Fears of Imminent Incursion into Kurdish Territory
Dec 17, 2024, 06:52 AM
Turkey and its allied militias are reportedly amassing forces along the border with Syria, including near the city of Kobani, raising concerns among senior U.S. officials that Ankara is preparing for an imminent large-scale incursion into territory held by U.S.-backed Syrian Kurds. The Wall Street Journal cited U.S. officials expressing alarm over the potential operation. Turkish forces, including commandos and artillery, have been observed near Kobani (also known as Ayn al-Arab). Kurdish officials have expressed concern and urged for international intervention to prevent the potential offensive.
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Stalemate with ongoing conflict • 25%
Successful operation with significant Kurdish retreat • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Operation called off or delayed indefinitely • 25%
Full-scale incursion • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Limited military action • 25%
Turkey attacks Kobane • 25%
Turkey retreats from threats • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Diplomatic resolution achieved • 25%
Minor skirmishes, no significant change • 25%
Withdrawal from contested areas • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Significant territorial gains • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Successful operation with Turkish control • 25%
Operation leads to significant international backlash • 25%
Stalemate with no significant gains • 25%
Diplomatic resolution with SDF • 25%
Increased military engagement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
Ceasefire reached • 25%
Complete success with full control established • 25%
Partial success with some areas controlled • 25%
Stalemate with no significant change • 25%
Failure with loss of territory • 25%
Continued military engagement • 25%
Other • 25%
No significant change • 25%
PKK/YPG leadership leaves voluntarily • 25%
Military operation conducted • 25%
Diplomatic resolution reached • 25%