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What will be the outcome of TikTok's U.S. legal battle by January 19, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Supreme Court blocks ban • 25%
Ban upheld, ByteDance divests • 25%
Ban upheld, TikTok banned • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Court rulings and official announcements from TikTok or the U.S. government
Story
TikTok Appeals to Supreme Court to Block U.S. Ban by Jan. 19, Amid Trump's Support
Dec 17, 2024, 05:47 PM
TikTok has filed an emergency application with the U.S. Supreme Court to block a federal law that mandates the app's Chinese parent company, ByteDance, to divest its holdings by January 19, 2025, or face a ban in the U.S. The company argues that the law violates the First Amendment and would affect its 170 million American users. Amidst this legal battle, President-elect Donald Trump met with TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew at Mar-a-Lago, signaling a potential openness to stopping the ban. Trump has expressed a 'warm spot' for TikTok, citing its role in his recent election success among young voters. The law, passed by Congress in April, stems from concerns over national security risks posed by TikTok's data collection and potential content manipulation by the Chinese government. A federal appeals court upheld the law earlier this month, rejecting TikTok's First Amendment claims.
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Ban enforced • 25%
Ban delayed • 25%
Ban lifted • 25%
Divestiture completed • 25%
Divestment blocked • 25%
Divestment proceeds • 25%
Divestment postponed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
TikTok wins the legal challenge • 25%
TikTok loses the legal challenge • 25%
Case is settled out of court • 25%
Case is postponed beyond January 19, 2024 • 25%
Challenges upheld • 33%
Challenges rejected • 33%
Case unresolved • 33%
Ban upheld, TikTok banned • 25%
Ban delayed, temporary reprieve • 25%
Ban overturned, TikTok operations continue • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
ByteDance sells TikTok's U.S. operations • 25%
TikTok is banned from U.S. app stores • 25%
TikTok wins appeal and continues operations • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
TikTok wins • 25%
TikTok loses and divests • 25%
TikTok loses and is banned • 25%
Settlement reached • 25%
Ban upheld • 25%
Ban overturned • 25%
Settlement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
TikTok banned • 25%
ByteDance divests • 25%
Supreme Court blocks ban • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ban upheld • 25%
Ban blocked • 25%
Settlement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Appeal Granted • 25%
Appeal Denied • 25%
Case Dismissed • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Ban upheld • 25%
Ban overturned • 25%
Compromise reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
TikTok banned • 33%
TikTok sold • 33%
No action taken • 33%