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What will be the outcome of TikTok's legal challenge against the U.S. law by mid-January 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
TikTok wins • 25%
TikTok loses and divests • 25%
TikTok loses and is banned • 25%
Settlement reached • 25%
Court rulings and official legal documents
Story
TikTok Challenges U.S. Law Mandating Divestment or Ban Before Three-Judge Panel
Sep 16, 2024, 06:31 PM
TikTok and its parent company ByteDance are challenging a U.S. law that requires them to divest from their Chinese ownership or face a ban in the United States. The legal battle is being heard by a three-judge panel at a federal appeals court in Washington, D.C., where TikTok is arguing that the law violates free speech protections under the First Amendment. The U.S. government contends that the law, signed by President Biden, is necessary to address national security concerns, citing the potential for the Chinese government to access user data and influence content. Judges have shown skepticism towards TikTok's arguments, questioning whether a foreign-owned company can claim First Amendment rights. The outcome of this case could have significant implications for the future of TikTok in the U.S., with a potential ban set to take effect by mid-January 2025 if ByteDance does not divest. TikTok has 170 million users in the U.S.
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Divestment blocked • 25%
Divestment proceeds • 25%
Divestment postponed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ban upheld, TikTok banned • 25%
Ban delayed, temporary reprieve • 25%
Ban overturned, TikTok operations continue • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
TikTok wins the legal challenge • 25%
TikTok loses the legal challenge • 25%
Case is settled out of court • 25%
Case is postponed beyond January 19, 2024 • 25%
Law Upheld • 33%
Law Struck Down • 33%
Compromise Reached • 33%
Challenges upheld • 33%
Challenges rejected • 33%
Case unresolved • 33%
Supreme Court blocks ban • 25%
Ban upheld, ByteDance divests • 25%
Ban upheld, TikTok banned • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
TikTok wins the legal challenge • 50%
TikTok loses the legal challenge • 50%
Ban enforced • 25%
Ban delayed • 25%
Ban lifted • 25%
Divestiture completed • 25%
TikTok Banned • 33%
TikTok Sold • 33%
TikTok Remains Operational • 33%
Ban upheld • 25%
Ban overturned • 25%
Settlement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
TikTok wins the challenge • 25%
TikTok loses the challenge • 25%
Case is dismissed • 25%
Settlement reached • 25%
Ban upheld • 25%
Ban overturned • 25%
Settlement reached • 25%
No decision by deadline • 25%