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What will be the outcome of TikTok's divestiture requirement by January 19, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Successful divestiture • 25%
Nationwide ban enforced • 25%
Extension granted • 25%
Other • 25%
Official announcements from TikTok, ByteDance, or credible news reports
Story
Supreme Court Upholds Law Requiring TikTok to Divest from ByteDance by Sunday or Face U.S. Ban
Jan 17, 2025, 03:04 PM
The U.S. Supreme Court has upheld a law that requires TikTok to divest from its Chinese parent company, ByteDance, by Sunday or face a nationwide ban. The unanimous, unsigned decision clears the way for the enforcement of the statute, which was passed with bipartisan support in Congress last April. The court concluded that the law does not violate the First Amendment rights of TikTok and its users, despite arguments from the company and content creators that it infringes on their free speech rights. The decision comes just days before the law is set to take effect, potentially leading to TikTok's shutdown in the U.S. if no divestiture occurs.
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Sold to a U.S. company • 25%
Extension granted • 25%
No sale completed, TikTok banned • 25%
Sold to a non-U.S., non-Chinese company • 25%
Ban implemented • 33%
Deadline extended • 34%
Divestment completed • 33%
ByteDance divests • 25%
TikTok banned • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Supreme Court blocks ban • 25%
Extension granted • 25%
No action taken • 25%
TikTok banned • 25%
Divestment completed • 25%
No divestiture • 25%
Divestiture announced but not completed • 25%
Divestiture completed • 25%
Legal challenge delaying divestiture • 25%
Not sold and banned • 25%
Sold to Kevin O'Leary • 25%
Sold to another non-Chinese entity • 25%
Other • 25%
Settlement reached • 25%
Supreme Court blocks order • 25%
Supreme Court upholds order • 25%
Other legal outcome • 25%
Complete divestment • 25%
Extension granted • 25%
No divestment • 25%
Partial divestment • 25%
Sale postponed • 25%
Sold to another party • 25%
Not sold • 25%
Sold to McCourt and O’Leary • 25%
Acquisition Unsuccessful • 25%
Deal Canceled • 25%
Negotiations Extended • 25%
Acquisition Successful • 25%
Not sold, not banned • 25%
Not sold, banned • 25%
Sold to MrBeast • 25%
Sold to another buyer • 25%
Supreme Court delays or overturns the ban • 25%
Sold to Elon Musk's X • 25%
Continues under ByteDance • 25%
Banned in the US • 25%
Other • 25%
Sold to Elon Musk • 25%
Sold to another U.S. entity • 25%
Not sold, ban overturned • 25%
Operations banned in the U.S. • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
No action taken • 25%
Ban enforced • 25%
Divestment completed • 25%
Supreme Court upholds ban and TikTok shuts down • 25%
TikTok sold to an approved buyer • 25%
Other outcome • 25%