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What will be the outcome of TikTok's U.S. asset sale negotiations by January 19, 2025?
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Frank McCourt•TikTok•United States•Chinese•ByteDance•McCourt•Project Liberty•China•Supreme Court•Biden
Resolution / Starting Odds
Sold to McCourt and O’Leary • 25%
Sold to another party • 25%
Not sold • 25%
Sale postponed • 25%
Official announcements from ByteDance or involved parties
Story
Frank McCourt, Kevin O’Leary Bid for TikTok as January 19 Ban Looms
Jan 12, 2025, 04:55 PM
Billionaire Frank McCourt and investor Kevin O’Leary have partnered to bid for TikTok’s U.S. assets, as the app faces a potential ban in the United States by January 19 unless it is divested from its Chinese parent company, ByteDance. McCourt’s organization, Project Liberty, has formally submitted an offer to ByteDance, aiming to rebuild TikTok on American-designed technology without its algorithm, which is considered intellectual property by China. The bid is supported by $20 billion in verbal commitments from investors. The potential ban stems from national security concerns over the app’s ties to China, with lawmakers citing risks of espionage and covert influence operations. O’Leary and McCourt plan to prioritize user privacy and data ownership, proposing a model where users can monetize their data. TikTok has 170 million U.S. users and is valued at $30-$40 billion. The Supreme Court recently heard oral arguments on the ban, which was authorized by a law signed by President Biden last year. The court’s decision, expected before the January 19 deadline, could influence ByteDance’s decision to sell. TikTok has denied posing a security threat and opposes the forced sale, arguing it violates free speech rights.
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Acquisition Unsuccessful • 25%
Deal Canceled • 25%
Negotiations Extended • 25%
Acquisition Successful • 25%
ByteDance divests • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
TikTok banned • 25%
Supreme Court blocks ban • 25%
Sold to a non-U.S., non-Chinese company • 25%
Extension granted • 25%
No sale completed, TikTok banned • 25%
Sold to a U.S. company • 25%
TikTok sold to an approved buyer • 25%
Supreme Court delays or overturns the ban • 25%
Supreme Court upholds ban and TikTok shuts down • 25%
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Divestment completed • 25%
Ban enforced • 25%
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Sold to another U.S. entity • 25%
Sold to Elon Musk's X • 25%
Continues under ByteDance • 25%
Operations banned in the U.S. • 25%
Not sold, ban overturned • 25%
Banned in the US • 25%
Other • 25%
Sold to Elon Musk • 25%
Continues operations without change • 25%
Acquired by Elon Musk • 25%
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Banned in the U.S. • 25%
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TikTok wins appeal and continues operations • 25%
TikTok is banned from U.S. app stores • 25%
ByteDance sells TikTok's U.S. operations • 25%
Frank McCourt • 25%
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Private Equity Firm • 25%
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Frank McCourt • 25%
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Not banned, no divestment • 25%
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Banned • 25%