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What will be the outcome of Argentina's free trade negotiations with the US by end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Agreement reached • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Negotiations suspended • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Official statements from the governments of Argentina or the United States
Story
Argentina's Milei Cuts Taxes 90%, Achieves 2.4% Inflation, First Budget Surplus in 123 Years
Dec 11, 2024, 07:02 PM
Argentine President Javier Milei marked his first year in office on December 10, implementing a sweeping economic plan focused on reducing the size of the state to achieve macroeconomic balance and control inflation. Key achievements during his tenure include a massive 90% reduction in national taxes, resulting in Argentina's first budget surplus in 123 years. Inflation has decreased for seven consecutive months, dropping to 2.4% in November—the lowest since July 2020 and significantly below market expectations—though annual inflation still stands at 166%. Notably, inflation in food and beverages was only 0.9% in November. Milei announced plans to negotiate a free trade agreement with the United States next year during Argentina's presidency of Mercosur. The economic reforms have led to stabilization of the macroeconomy, with private sector employment and real wages growing for two consecutive months.
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Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Major restructuring • 25%
Minor adjustments • 25%
No changes • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Increased tariffs on China • 25%
Increased tariffs on EU • 25%
New trade deal with China • 25%
New trade deal with EU • 25%
New trade agreement reached • 25%
No agreement, tariffs remain • 25%
Tariffs reduced without new agreement • 25%
Trade tensions escalate • 25%
US imposes tariffs, no retaliation • 25%
US imposes tariffs, Canada retaliates • 25%
Tariffs not imposed, negotiations successful • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Top 50 • 25%
51 to 75 • 25%
76 to 100 • 25%
Below 100 • 25%
New energy trade deal • 25%
Tariffs imposed • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Trade tensions escalate • 25%
Strengthened ties • 25%
Deteriorated ties • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Unclear outcome • 25%
Successful implementation with economic growth • 25%
Partial implementation with mixed results • 25%
Failure to implement • 25%
Reversal of tax cuts • 25%
New trade agreement reached • 25%
Increased tariffs without agreement • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Tariffs implemented as announced • 25%
Tariffs modified • 25%
Tariffs withdrawn • 25%
No resolution • 25%
Favorable to U.S. • 25%
Neutral • 25%
Unfavorable to U.S. • 25%
No significant agreements • 25%