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What will be the outcome of Israel's military strategy against Hamas by January 20, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Complete defeat of Hamas • 25%
Partial defeat with ongoing conflict • 25%
No significant military action taken • 25%
Hostage deal reached, no military action • 25%
Official announcements from the Israeli government or credible news outlets
Story
Israel Defense Minister Orders IDF to Prepare Plan for Complete Defeat of Hamas by January 20, 2025
Jan 10, 2025, 09:02 AM
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz has instructed the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) to prepare a plan for the complete defeat of Hamas in Gaza. This directive comes with a deadline tied to the potential realization of a hostage deal. Katz stated that if a deal is not reached before President-elect Donald Trump takes office on January 20, 2025, Hamas must face total defeat. He emphasized the need to avoid a prolonged and costly war of attrition, highlighting the urgency of the situation.
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Return to pre-October 7 status quo • 25%
Full Israeli control • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Partial Israeli control • 25%
Peace negotiations • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Other • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Complete victory over Iran and proxies • 25%
Partial victory with ongoing conflicts • 25%
Stalemate with no clear victor • 25%
Significant setbacks for Israel • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Continued military escalation • 25%
Mediation talks ongoing • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Complete defeat of Hamas • 25%
Partial defeat with cease-fire • 25%
Hamas retains significant control • 25%
Stalemate with ongoing conflict • 25%
Hamas significantly weakened • 25%
Hamas retains capabilities • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Increased hostilities • 25%
Diplomatic efforts • 25%
Increased military action • 25%
Other • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Temporary truce without formal agreement • 25%
Ceasefire with terms agreed • 25%
Peace treaty • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No significant disarmament • 25%
Complete disarmament of Hezbollah • 25%
Partial disarmament • 25%
Increased military presence • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Significant reduction in Hamas infrastructure • 25%
Continuation of current conflict • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%