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What will be the outcome of Israel's military operations in Lebanon by April 30, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Complete disarmament of Hezbollah • 25%
Partial disarmament • 25%
No significant disarmament • 25%
Increased military presence • 25%
Reports from Israeli government or credible news agencies
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U.S. General Jeffers Reports Israel Plans to Extend Troop Presence in Lebanon to 90 Days, with April Extension Possibility
Jan 4, 2025, 09:05 AM
U.S. Major General Jasper Jeffers, head of the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire implementation committee, has reportedly informed Lebanese officials of Israel's intention to extend its troop presence in Lebanon from the current 60 days to 90 days. This information was conveyed through Lebanese media sources, including the pro-Hezbollah newspaper Al-Akhbar. The extension may be subject to further extensions until April, depending on Israel's ability to achieve its operational goals in the region, particularly concerning the disarmament of Hezbollah facilities. The discussions come amid ongoing tensions and military operations in southern Lebanon.
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Other • 25%
Extended Presence • 25%
Partial Withdrawal • 25%
Full Withdrawal • 25%
Complete victory over Iran and proxies • 25%
Partial victory with ongoing conflicts • 25%
Stalemate with no clear victor • 25%
Significant setbacks for Israel • 25%
Full Israeli control • 25%
Partial Israeli control • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Return to pre-October 7 status quo • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Escalation into war • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Partial withdrawal • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
Continued presence • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Successful large-scale attack • 25%
Limited engagement only • 25%
No military action • 25%
Withdrawal with Conditions • 25%
Partial Withdrawal • 25%
Complete Withdrawal • 25%
No Withdrawal • 25%
No significant damage to Houthi infrastructure • 25%
Limited Houthi infrastructure damaged • 25%
Significant Houthi infrastructure destroyed • 25%
Operation called off • 25%
Negotiated settlement • 25%
Houthis retaliate successfully • 25%
Conflict stalemates • 25%
Houthis significantly weakened • 25%
Ceasefire violated by Israel • 25%
Ceasefire violated by Hezbollah • 25%
Ceasefire mutually violated • 25%
Ceasefire holds • 25%