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Market
Outcome of IDF operation against Hamas in Gaza by April 30, 2025?
2
Israel Defense Forces•IDF•Hamas•Musa Bin Nusair•Daraj Tuffah•Gaza•Israeli military•Aman•Shin Bet•Southern Command•Israeli
Resolution / Starting Odds
Hamas significantly weakened • 25%
Hamas retains capabilities • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Increased hostilities • 25%
Official statements from IDF and Hamas, and analysis from international observers
Story
IDF Airstrike Targets Hamas Command Center in Gaza's Former Musa Bin Nusair School
Dec 22, 2024, 06:49 AM
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) conducted an airstrike overnight targeting Hamas operatives at a command and control center located in a former school, the Musa Bin Nusair school, in the Daraj Tuffah area of Gaza. The operation was carried out based on intelligence from the Israeli military's Aman, the Shin Bet security service, and the Southern Command. The IDF reported that the center was utilized by Hamas to plan and execute attacks against Israeli forces. Efforts were made during the strike to minimize civilian harm.
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Significant territorial gains • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Withdrawal without gains • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Significant reduction in Hamas infrastructure • 25%
Continuation of current conflict • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
Full Israeli control • 25%
Partial Israeli control • 25%
Return to pre-October 7 status quo • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
Continued military presence • 25%
Ceasefire with conditions • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
Complete surrender of Hamas forces • 25%
Partial surrender with ongoing conflict • 25%
Hamas regains control • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Operation concluded with all hostages recovered • 25%
Operation concluded with some hostages recovered • 25%
Operation ongoing • 25%
Operation concluded with no hostages recovered • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Peace treaty signed • 25%
Other • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
Continued Conflict • 25%
Peace Agreement • 25%
Other • 25%
Successful destruction of Hamas infrastructure • 25%
Significant Hamas casualties • 25%
Civilian casualties • 25%
Other • 25%
Hamas leadership captured • 25%
Significant reduction in terrorist activity • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increased conflict and casualties • 25%
Successful rescue of hostages • 25%
Failure to rescue hostages • 25%
Significant casualties without rescue • 25%
Operation aborted • 25%
Complete success • 25%
Partial success • 25%
No significant progress • 25%
Operation fails • 25%