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Market
Outcome of Israel-Hamas conflict escalation by March 31, 2025?
2
Israel•Hamas•Gaza Strip•Israel Defense Forces•IDF•Shin Bet•Israeli Air Force•Southern Command•Israeli•Palestinian•Military Intelligence
Resolution / Starting Odds
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Continued military escalation • 25%
Mediation talks ongoing • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Reports from international news agencies and official statements from involved parties
Story
Israel Conducts Over 100 Airstrikes on Hamas Targets in Gaza, Killing Dozens After Recent Rocket Fire
Jan 5, 2025, 05:31 AM
Israel conducted over 100 airstrikes on Hamas targets in the Gaza Strip over the weekend, according to reports from the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and Shin Bet. The strikes, which were part of a coordinated operation involving the Israeli Air Force and the Southern Command, aimed to eliminate Hamas militants and infrastructure in response to recent rocket fire into Israeli territory. Palestinian health authorities reported that these attacks resulted in the deaths of more than 110 people over a two-day period. The IDF stated that dozens of Hamas operatives were killed during the operation, which was guided by Military Intelligence.
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Similar markets
Continued conflict • 25%
Other • 25%
Peace negotiations • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Permanent ceasefire agreed • 25%
Other • 25%
Temporary ceasefire agreed • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Hamas significantly weakened • 25%
Increased hostilities • 25%
Hamas retains capabilities • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
De-escalation • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Escalated conflict • 25%
Ceasefire • 25%
Hostage exchange deal finalized • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire agreement only • 25%
Stalemate with ongoing conflict • 25%
Hamas retains significant control • 25%
Partial defeat with cease-fire • 25%
Complete defeat of Hamas • 25%
Partial Agreement • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
No Agreement • 25%
Hostage Release Only • 25%
Full Israeli control • 25%
Partial Israeli control • 25%
Return to pre-October 7 status quo • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
UN sanctions against Hamas • 25%
No significant international action • 25%
Mediation efforts initiated • 25%
UN sanctions against Israel • 25%
Temporary truce without formal agreement • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Other • 25%
Ceasefire with terms agreed • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Peace treaty • 25%
Other outcome • 25%