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What change, if any, will occur in Israeli military strategy towards Hamas by May 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased military action • 25%
Diplomatic efforts • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other • 25%
Official announcements from the Israeli Defense Forces or government
Story
Hamas Releases Video of 19-Year-Old Israeli Hostage Liri Albag, First Sign of Life in 456 Days
Jan 4, 2025, 02:24 PM
Hamas has released a propaganda video on Saturday showing Israeli hostage Liri Albag, a 19-year-old surveillance soldier who was abducted from the Nahal Oz military post during the October 7 attack. In the three-and-a-half-minute video, Albag states she has been held for over 450 days, indicating it was filmed recently. This release marks the first sign of life from Albag in 456 days. Her family has requested that no parts or images of the video be publicized.
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Initiation of peace talks • 25%
Continuation of current strategy • 25%
International intervention • 25%
Increase in military operations • 25%
New alliances formed • 25%
No significant policy change • 25%
Increased military spending • 25%
Upgraded missile defense systems • 25%
Economic development focus • 25%
Increased military presence • 25%
Status quo • 25%
Decreased military presence • 25%
Strengthened • 25%
Weakened • 25%
Unchanged • 25%
Dismantled • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Policy reversal • 25%
Policy modification • 25%
Increased policy severity • 25%
Policy continuation • 25%
Other strategic changes • 25%
Increased defense budget • 25%
Deployment of new defense systems • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
No change • 25%
Increased attacks • 25%
Decreased attacks • 25%
Shift to diplomatic efforts • 25%
Return to pre-October 7 status quo • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Partial Israeli control • 25%
Full Israeli control • 25%
Increased attacks • 25%
Shift to diplomatic efforts • 25%
Decreased attacks • 25%
No significant change • 25%
