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Will Israel reach a hostage deal with Hamas before January 20, 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official announcements from the Israeli government or credible news outlets
Story
Israel Defense Minister Orders IDF to Prepare Plan for Complete Defeat of Hamas by January 20, 2025
Jan 10, 2025, 09:02 AM
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz has instructed the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) to prepare a plan for the complete defeat of Hamas in Gaza. This directive comes with a deadline tied to the potential realization of a hostage deal. Katz stated that if a deal is not reached before President-elect Donald Trump takes office on January 20, 2025, Hamas must face total defeat. He emphasized the need to avoid a prolonged and costly war of attrition, highlighting the urgency of the situation.
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Partial release • 25%
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Hostages not released • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Negotiations postponed • 25%
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No agreement reached • 25%
Partial agreement with some hostages released • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
