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What will be the outcome of Israel's military operations in Gaza by June 30, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Full Israeli control • 25%
Partial Israeli control • 25%
Return to pre-October 7 status quo • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official statements from the Israeli government or reports from major international news outlets
Story
Israel's Defense Minister Katz: Full Security Control Over Gaza Post-Hamas Defeat, Similar to West Bank
Dec 17, 2024, 07:44 AM
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz stated that following the military defeat of Hamas, Israel will establish full security control over Gaza, similar to its current operations in the West Bank. Katz emphasized that Israel will have complete freedom of action in the region, rejecting any return to the pre-October 7 status quo. His remarks come amid ongoing military operations and reflect Israel's intent to maintain a permanent presence in Gaza, ensuring that terrorists cannot threaten Israeli civilians from the area again. Katz's position aligns with previous statements made to U.S. officials, indicating a strategic shift in Israel's approach to Gaza post-conflict.
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Complete withdrawal • 25%
Continued military presence • 25%
Ceasefire with conditions • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
No operation • 25%
Limited operation • 25%
Moderate operation • 25%
Full-scale operation • 25%
Hamas significantly weakened • 25%
Hamas retains capabilities • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Increased hostilities • 25%
Significant territorial gains • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Withdrawal without gains • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Significant reduction in Hamas infrastructure • 25%
Continuation of current conflict • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
Successful • 33%
Unsuccessful • 33%
Ongoing • 34%
Hamas leadership eliminated • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Other • 25%
Complete victory over Iran and proxies • 25%
Partial victory with ongoing conflicts • 25%
Stalemate with no clear victor • 25%
Significant setbacks for Israel • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Significant Israeli gains • 25%
Significant Hamas gains • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Increase in international aid to Gaza • 25%
Further military escalation • 25%
Peace negotiations initiated • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Peace treaty signed • 25%
Other • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Peace treaty • 25%
Other outcome • 25%