Loading...
Market
What will be the main reason cited for any breakdown of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire by June 30, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Violation by Hamas • 25%
Violation by Israel • 25%
External interference • 25%
Other • 25%
Reports from credible news organizations or statements from involved parties
Story
Israel Considers Ceasefire as Hamas Agrees to Release Hostages in Draft Deal
Jan 14, 2025, 11:33 AM
According to officials cited by the Associated Press, Hamas has accepted a draft agreement for a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip and the phased release of dozens of hostages. Mediator Qatar stated that the negotiations are at the 'closest point' yet to sealing a deal, with the announcement considered 'imminent'. Egypt and the United States are also involved in mediating the agreement, which requires approval from the Israeli Cabinet. Israeli officials acknowledged progress has been made but noted that details are still being finalized. The ceasefire proposal aims to halt hostilities and facilitate the release of hostages held by Hamas.
View original story
Similar markets
New Israeli demands • 25%
Other • 25%
International pressure • 25%
Internal Palestinian disagreements • 25%
Hostage Release Issues • 25%
Ceasefire Terms • 25%
Other • 25%
Mediation Challenges • 25%
New Israeli conditions • 25%
Disagreements over hostage release • 25%
Lack of international mediation • 25%
Other • 25%
Other reasons • 25%
U.S. pressure on Israel • 25%
Lack of international pressure • 25%
Internal Hamas strategy • 25%
Ceasefire violated by Israel • 25%
Mutual violation • 25%
Ceasefire holds • 25%
Ceasefire violated by Palestinian factions • 25%
Mediation Challenges • 25%
External Political Pressure • 25%
Hamas Demands • 25%
Internal Israeli Opposition • 25%
Renewed hostilities • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Partial ceasefire with conditions • 25%
Full ceasefire agreement • 25%
Ceasefire with terms agreed • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Temporary truce without formal agreement • 25%
Other • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Partial ceasefire agreement • 25%
Full ceasefire agreement • 25%
No agreement • 25%
No ceasefire agreement • 25%
Ceasefire without hostage release • 25%
Ceasefire with hostage release • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Other • 25%
Qatar and the UK • 25%
The United States • 25%
The United Nations • 25%
Failed negotiations • 25%
Ongoing conflict • 25%
Long-term ceasefire • 25%
Short-term ceasefire • 25%