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Market
What will be identified as the primary reason for Hamas withdrawing from negotiations by April 30, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
U.S. pressure on Israel • 25%
Internal Hamas strategy • 25%
Lack of international pressure • 25%
Other reasons • 25%
Statements from Hamas or Israeli government, major news outlets
Story
Blinken: U.S. Pressure on Israel Caused Hamas to Withdraw from Ceasefire and Hostage Release Talks; Aid Threatened
Jan 5, 2025, 04:46 AM
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has revealed in an interview with the New York Times that public pressure from the U.S. on Israel has led Hamas to withdraw from potential ceasefire and hostage release agreements. Blinken noted that whenever there was 'public daylight' between the U.S. and Israel, Hamas perceived this as an opportunity to pull back from negotiations. He also expressed frustration over the lack of international pressure on Hamas to surrender and release hostages since the October 7 attack, describing the situation as 'astounding.' Blinken further disclosed that he had to threaten to cancel a planned visit by President Joe Biden to Israel if the country did not allow humanitarian aid into Gaza, a move that was eventually agreed upon after intense discussions with Israeli leadership.
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Ceasefire Terms • 25%
Hostage Release Issues • 25%
Mediation Challenges • 25%
Other • 25%
External pressure • 25%
Other • 25%
Need for internal consultations • 25%
Lack of progress • 25%
Internal Palestinian disagreements • 25%
New Israeli demands • 25%
International pressure • 25%
Other • 25%
Other • 25%
Lack of international mediation • 25%
Disagreements over hostage release • 25%
New Israeli conditions • 25%
Neither demands met • 25%
Hostages released and rocket attacks ceased • 25%
Only hostages released • 25%
Only rocket attacks ceased • 25%
Partial ceasefire agreement • 25%
Talks postponed • 25%
Complete ceasefire agreement • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire agreement only • 25%
Hostage exchange deal finalized • 25%
Humanitarian aid • 25%
Border security • 25%
Prisoner exchange • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Other • 25%
No Agreement • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
Prisoner Exchange • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Permanent ceasefire agreed • 25%
Temporary ceasefire agreed • 25%
Other • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
No Agreement • 25%
Partial Agreement • 25%
Hostage Release Only • 25%