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What will be the status of the Gaza ceasefire by June 30, 2025?
4
Resolution / Starting Odds
Ceasefire holds • 25%
Ceasefire violated by Israel • 25%
Ceasefire violated by Palestinian factions • 25%
Mutual violation • 25%
Official statements from the Israeli government, Palestinian authorities, reputable international news agencies
Story
Trump Promises Netanyahu Support to Violate Gaza Ceasefire, Lift Sanctions on Pegasus Spyware, and Facilitate West Bank Land Theft
Jan 14, 2025, 03:25 PM
Israeli media has reported that former U.S. President Donald Trump promised Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu support to violate a nascent ceasefire in Gaza. The reports indicate that Trump assured Netanyahu he could break the ceasefire and resume military actions after signing a deal. Additionally, Trump allegedly offered a 'gift bag' of benefits, which includes lifting sanctions on Israel's Pegasus spyware and providing support for Israeli settlers and extremists, as well as facilitating land acquisition in the West Bank.
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Short-term ceasefire • 25%
Long-term ceasefire • 25%
Ongoing conflict • 25%
Failed negotiations • 25%
Negotiations continue beyond deadline • 25%
Agreement approved but not implemented • 25%
Agreement approved and implemented • 25%
Agreement not approved • 25%
2 to 3 months • 25%
More than 3 months • 25%
Less than 1 month • 25%
1 to 2 months • 25%
Partial agreement reached • 25%
Full agreement reached • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Talks collapse • 25%
Renewed hostilities • 25%
Full ceasefire agreement • 25%
Partial ceasefire with conditions • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Complete Israeli control • 25%
Hostage deal with no further conflict • 25%
Ongoing conflict • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
