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What will be cited as the main reason for a delay in the Gaza ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2024?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
New Israeli conditions • 25%
Disagreements over hostage release • 25%
Lack of international mediation • 25%
Other • 25%
Official statements or credible news reports
Story
Hamas Claims Gaza Ceasefire Agreement Is 90% Complete and Closer Than Ever, Pending Israeli Conditions Before Year-End
Dec 21, 2024, 05:45 PM
Hamas and two other Palestinian groups have announced that a ceasefire agreement in the Gaza Strip is closer than ever, contingent on Israel refraining from imposing new conditions. Following a meeting in Cairo, representatives from Hamas indicated that significant progress has been made in negotiations, with most terms already agreed upon. The groups emphasized that the deal could be finalized before the end of the year if Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu does not introduce new stipulations. A Palestinian official involved in the discussions stated that the negotiations regarding a hostage release and ceasefire are approximately 90% complete. The ongoing talks involve mediation from American, Qatari, and Egyptian representatives.
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Similar markets
Internal Palestinian disagreements • 25%
New Israeli demands • 25%
Other • 25%
International pressure • 25%
Mediation Challenges • 25%
Hostage Release Issues • 25%
Other • 25%
Ceasefire Terms • 25%
Internal Hamas strategy • 25%
Lack of international pressure • 25%
Other reasons • 25%
U.S. pressure on Israel • 25%
Logistical challenges • 25%
Other • 25%
Israeli-imposed restrictions • 25%
Funding issues • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Other • 25%
Need for internal consultations • 25%
Lack of progress • 25%
External pressure • 25%
Hamas • 25%
PFLP • 25%
Islamic Jihad • 25%
Israeli Government • 25%
Other • 25%
Security concerns • 25%
Logistical challenges • 25%
Political pressure • 25%
Israeli government • 25%
Other entity • 25%
Both parties • 25%
Islamic Jihad • 25%
Political interference • 25%
Data collection errors • 25%
Other • 25%
Healthcare infrastructure collapse • 25%
