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Will the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas hold for at least one month post-initiation?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Monitoring by international watchdogs or reports by major news outlets
Story
Israel Considers Ceasefire as Hamas Agrees to Release Hostages in Draft Deal
Jan 14, 2025, 11:33 AM
According to officials cited by the Associated Press, Hamas has accepted a draft agreement for a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip and the phased release of dozens of hostages. Mediator Qatar stated that the negotiations are at the 'closest point' yet to sealing a deal, with the announcement considered 'imminent'. Egypt and the United States are also involved in mediating the agreement, which requires approval from the Israeli Cabinet. Israeli officials acknowledged progress has been made but noted that details are still being finalized. The ceasefire proposal aims to halt hostilities and facilitate the release of hostages held by Hamas.
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Increase in hostilities • 25%
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No change in hostilities • 25%
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No • 50%
1 to 2 months • 25%
Less than 1 month • 25%
More than 3 months • 25%
2 to 3 months • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Ceasefire holds but hostages not released • 25%
Ceasefire holds and hostages released • 25%
Ceasefire breaks and hostages not released • 25%
Ceasefire breaks but hostages released • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
All hostages returned • 25%
Ceasefire not implemented • 25%
No hostages returned • 25%
Partial hostage return • 25%
