Loading...
Market
What will be the outcome of Israel-Hamas ceasefire negotiations by February 28, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Ceasefire with hostage release • 25%
Ceasefire without hostage release • 25%
No ceasefire agreement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official announcements from Israeli and Hamas officials or credible news agencies
Story
Israel and Hamas Near Ceasefire Deal to Free 33 Hostages, Biden Says
Jan 13, 2025, 07:58 PM
Ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas are in advanced stages, potentially leading to the release of up to 33 hostages, according to Israeli officials. U.S. President Joe Biden announced that a Gaza deal is 'on the brink' of coming to fruition, referring to a proposal he laid out months ago. 'We're pressing hard to close this deal,' Biden said, emphasizing the urgency to halt the fighting, secure Israel's security, and significantly increase humanitarian assistance to Gaza. He acknowledged that the people of Gaza have 'lived through hell' and stressed that Palestinians need peace. Multiple sources indicate that an agreement is close to being finalized.
View original story
Similar markets
Ceasefire rejected • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Ceasefire agreed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire with terms agreed • 25%
Other • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Temporary truce without formal agreement • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire and hostages release agreed • 25%
Ceasefire only agreed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Full ceasefire agreement • 25%
Partial ceasefire with phased agreements • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Full ceasefire agreement • 25%
Partial ceasefire agreement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Talks collapse • 25%
Partial agreement reached • 25%
Full agreement reached • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Temporary ceasefire agreed • 25%
Permanent ceasefire agreed • 25%
Other • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Full Ceasefire and Hostage Release • 25%
No Agreement Reached • 25%
Partial Ceasefire and Hostage Release • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire agreement only • 25%
Hostage exchange deal finalized • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Partial Agreement • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
No Agreement • 25%
Hostage Release Only • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Partial hostage release • 25%
Yahya Sinwar's body returned • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Hadar Goldin's body returned • 25%
Information on Avera Mengistu and Hisham al-Sayed received • 25%
Agreement approved but not implemented • 25%
Agreement approved and implemented • 25%
Agreement not approved • 25%
Negotiations continue beyond deadline • 25%