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What will be the impact on Lebanon's political stability by December 31, 2024?
1
Israel•Hezbollah•Hassan Nasrallah•Beirut•Israeli Defense Forces•IDF•Nasrallah•Dahiyeh•Nadav Shoshani
Resolution / Starting Odds
Government collapse • 25%
Increased civil unrest • 25%
New coalition government • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Reports from major news outlets like Reuters, BBC, or Al Jazeera
Story
Israel's Military: "Hassan Nasrallah Is Dead" After Beirut Airstrike Targets Hezbollah Leader
Sep 28, 2024, 08:05 AM
Israel's military announced that Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah was killed in an airstrike on Beirut on Friday evening. The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) stated that the strike targeted Nasrallah's underground headquarters in Beirut's southern suburbs, known as Dahiyeh. "Hassan Nasrallah is dead," IDF spokesperson Lieutenant Colonel Nadav Shoshani announced on X. The operation follows reports that Israel executed 'decapitation strikes' against Hezbollah's top leadership. Hezbollah has yet to confirm Nasrallah's death.
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Government remains stable • 25%
Minor political unrest • 25%
Major political unrest • 25%
Government collapse • 25%
Government remains unchanged • 25%
Government resigns • 25%
New elections called • 25%
Other significant political change • 25%
Improved political stability • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Worsened political stability • 25%
Political crisis or government change • 25%
Increased support for Hezbollah • 25%
Decreased support for Hezbollah • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other • 25%
New Prime Minister • 25%
New President • 25%
No change in leadership • 25%
Other significant political change • 25%
Government instability • 25%
Increased support for Hezbollah • 25%
Increased opposition to Hezbollah • 25%
No significant political change • 25%
Prime Minister resigns • 25%
Parliament dissolved • 25%
New elections called • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Resignation of a key Lebanese politician • 25%
Increased military actions against Israel • 25%
Formal diplomatic protest to the UN • 25%
No significant political change • 25%
Government collapse • 25%
New elections called • 25%
Increased military actions • 25%
No significant political change • 25%
Government instability • 25%
Increased support for Hezbollah • 25%
Increased support for pro-Western factions • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Successful stabilization • 25%
Partial stabilization • 25%
No stabilization • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
New government formed • 25%
Current government remains • 25%
Civil unrest increases • 25%
International intervention • 25%