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How will the ceasefire impact Lebanon's political stability by end of 2024?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Improved political stability • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Worsened political stability • 25%
Political crisis or government change • 25%
Reports from international organizations or reputable news agencies
Story
Biden and Macron Announce Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire with Joint Monitoring Effort
Nov 26, 2024, 09:04 PM
U.S. President Joe Biden and French President Emmanuel Macron have issued a joint statement announcing a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon. The leaders emphasized that the cessation of hostilities will create the necessary conditions for a return to calm in Lebanon. Both countries have committed to working together and conducting a joint monitoring effort to ensure the full implementation of the ceasefire. This announcement follows weeks of intensive diplomatic efforts led by the U.S. and France.
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Government remains stable • 25%
Minor political unrest • 25%
Major political unrest • 25%
Government collapse • 25%
Government collapse • 25%
Increased civil unrest • 25%
New coalition government • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Support the ceasefire • 25%
Oppose the ceasefire • 25%
Seek amendments • 25%
Remain neutral • 25%
Significant reduction • 25%
Moderate reduction • 25%
No change • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Ceasefire reached • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Negotiations collapsed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire holds with full compliance • 25%
Ceasefire holds with minor violations • 25%
Ceasefire collapses • 25%
Ceasefire renegotiated • 25%
Government collapse • 25%
New elections called • 25%
Increased military actions • 25%
No significant political change • 25%
Increased support for Hezbollah • 25%
Decreased support for Hezbollah • 25%
Increased political instability • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Significant decrease in tensions • 25%
Moderate decrease in tensions • 25%
No change in tensions • 25%
Increase in tensions • 25%
Supports ceasefire, takes action against Hezbollah • 25%
Supports ceasefire, no action against Hezbollah • 25%
Opposes ceasefire, supports Hezbollah • 25%
Neutral stance • 25%
Government remains unchanged • 25%
Government resigns • 25%
New elections called • 25%
Other significant political change • 25%
De-escalation and peace talks • 25%
Continued low-level hostilities • 25%
Major escalation involving multiple countries • 25%
Other unexpected outcome • 25%