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What changes will occur in HTS leadership or policy in Syria by end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Leadership change • 25%
Policy shift • 25%
Both leadership and policy change • 25%
No change • 25%
Reports from independent international media and intelligence agencies
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Turkey Aims to Eliminate YPG in Syria Amidst HTS-Led Transition
Dec 13, 2024, 07:42 PM
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has declared the elimination of the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) in Syria as a strategic goal for Ankara. Fidan emphasized that the YPG must either dissolve itself or face elimination, highlighting Turkey's stance against the group, which is considered a terror organization by Turkey, the EU, and the US. He also warned Israel against its 'dangerous strategy' to undermine Syria's new administration, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), and stressed the importance of ensuring the safety of Kurds living in the region during the elimination of YPG. Fidan's comments come amidst a broader context of regional power dynamics, with Turkey coordinating with various stakeholders to support a peaceful transition in Syria.
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HTS excluded from government • 25%
HTS forms own government • 25%
Other role • 25%
HTS part of interim government • 25%
Democratic elections • 25%
No new governance established • 25%
Transitional government • 25%
Authoritarian rule • 25%
Partial control with ongoing conflicts • 25%
Stable control over Syria • 25%
Loss of control to another group • 25%
International intervention • 25%
No recognition • 25%
Recognized as government • 25%
Recognized as local authority • 25%
Recognized as non-state actor • 25%
Hybrid governance • 25%
Democratic governance • 25%
Islamist governance • 25%
Military rule • 25%
Decreased influence • 25%
Increased influence • 25%
No change • 25%
Disbanded • 25%
Other • 25%
Abu Mohammad al-Jolani remains leader • 25%
New leader appointed • 25%
Leadership under council • 25%
Other policy change • 25%
Increased engagement • 25%
Maintained current stance • 25%
Reduced engagement • 25%
Sanctions imposed by multiple countries • 25%
Recognized by multiple Western countries • 25%
No formal recognition • 25%
Recognized by regional countries only • 25%
Tribal governance model • 25%
No significant change • 25%
National Army formation • 25%
Federal governance model • 25%
Al-Jolani remains leader • 25%
No significant leadership changes • 25%
Al-Jolani replaced • 25%
Leadership structure changes • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Political reforms • 25%
Social reforms • 25%
Economic reforms • 25%