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What will be the status of the HTS-led Syrian government's control and stability by the end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Stable control over Syria • 25%
Partial control with ongoing conflicts • 25%
Loss of control to another group • 25%
International intervention • 25%
Reports from international organizations or major news outlets
Story
UK's David Lammy Confirms Diplomatic Contact with HTS Following Bashar al-Assad's Ouster
Dec 15, 2024, 05:12 PM
The United Kingdom has established diplomatic contact with the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the group that recently ousted President Bashar al-Assad in Syria. UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy confirmed this development, stating that the British government has engaged with the new Syrian government led by HTS. This contact marks a significant shift in the UK's diplomatic approach towards Syria following the recent political changes in the region.
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Other role • 25%
HTS forms own government • 25%
HTS excluded from government • 25%
HTS part of interim government • 25%
Recognized as local authority • 25%
Recognized as non-state actor • 25%
No recognition • 25%
Recognized as government • 25%
Government retains partial control • 25%
Government control unchanged • 25%
Government regains full control • 25%
Government loses control • 25%
Decreased influence • 25%
Disbanded • 25%
Increased influence • 25%
No change • 25%
Both leadership and policy change • 25%
Policy shift • 25%
Leadership change • 25%
No change • 25%
Recognized by some countries • 25%
Not recognized • 25%
Widely recognized internationally • 25%
Recognition status unclear • 25%
Non-sectarian government established • 25%
New sectarian government formed • 25%
Government collapse • 25%
Current government remains • 25%
No new governance established • 25%
Democratic elections • 25%
Authoritarian rule • 25%
Transitional government • 25%
Continued isolation • 25%
Recognition by major powers • 25%
Sanctions or military action • 25%
Other diplomatic response • 25%
Military rule • 25%
Democratic governance • 25%
Islamist governance • 25%
Hybrid governance • 25%