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What role will HTS play in Syrian governance by mid-2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
HTS part of interim government • 25%
HTS excluded from government • 25%
HTS forms own government • 25%
Other role • 25%
Reports from credible international news agencies and official statements from Syrian interim government
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UK May Remove HTS from Terror List After Assad's Fall, Pending Group's Behavior
Dec 9, 2024, 08:49 AM
The UK government is considering removing Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) from its list of proscribed terrorist organizations following the group's role in overthrowing Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. HTS, an Islamist militant group with historical ties to al-Qaeda, led the recent offensive that resulted in the toppling of the Assad regime after decades in power. Senior Cabinet Minister Pat McFadden stated that the government would review HTS's status, saying, "We'll consider it, depending on how they behave now." HTS was banned in the UK in 2017 as an alias of al-Qaeda but has since become a leading force among Syrian rebel factions.
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Recognized as government • 25%
Recognized as local authority • 25%
Recognized as non-state actor • 25%
No recognition • 25%
Stable control over Syria • 25%
Partial control with ongoing conflicts • 25%
Loss of control to another group • 25%
International intervention • 25%
Democratic governance • 25%
Islamist governance • 25%
Hybrid governance • 25%
Military rule • 25%
Leadership change • 25%
Policy shift • 25%
Both leadership and policy change • 25%
No change • 25%
Democratic elections • 25%
Authoritarian rule • 25%
Transitional government • 25%
No new governance established • 25%
Increased influence • 25%
Decreased influence • 25%
No change • 25%
Disbanded • 25%
National Army formation • 25%
Federal governance model • 25%
Tribal governance model • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Full support • 25%
Conditional support • 25%
No support • 25%
Sanctions imposed • 25%
Widely recognized internationally • 25%
Recognized by some countries • 25%
Not recognized • 25%
Recognition status unclear • 25%