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Outcome of Syria-Lebanon diplomatic situation by end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Relations improve significantly • 25%
Relations remain tense • 25%
Relations worsen significantly • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Official statements from Syrian and Lebanese governments or credible news sources
Story
Syria Imposes Entry Restrictions on Lebanese After Border Clash Injures Soldier
Jan 3, 2025, 01:06 PM
Syria has imposed new entry restrictions on Lebanese citizens following a border clash between the Lebanese army and armed Syrians. The restrictions, which began to be enforced recently, require Lebanese nationals to possess a valid Syrian residency permit to enter the country. The Lebanese army reported that the clash occurred when Syrian militants attempted to reopen an illegal border crossing using a bulldozer, resulting in a firefight that injured a Lebanese soldier. The incident has led to heightened tensions between the two nations, marking the first significant diplomatic friction since the fall of the Assad regime last month. The Syrian authorities have not yet communicated the new border measures officially to Lebanon, leaving Lebanese officials surprised by the sudden closure of the border to their citizens.
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Improved relations • 25%
Formal agreement signed • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Normal relations • 25%
Strained relations • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Diplomatic breakdown • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Resolution and return to normalcy • 25%
Escalation into further conflict • 25%
Continued stalemate • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Government Regains Control • 25%
Partial Rebel Control • 25%
Complete Rebel Victory • 25%
Other • 25%
International intervention • 25%
New government established • 25%
Ongoing civil conflict • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Peace agreement reached • 25%
Government regains full control • 25%
Significant gains by opposition • 25%
Status quo • 25%
Government retains power • 25%
Opposition victory • 25%
Assad regime remains in power • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
New government established • 25%
Ongoing conflict with no clear resolution • 25%
Continued non-engagement • 25%
Other • 25%
Diplomatic relations established • 25%
Increased tensions or conflict • 25%
Democratic government • 25%
Military rule • 25%
Civil war continues • 25%
Other • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Peace talks initiated • 25%
Other diplomatic outcomes • 25%
No progress • 25%
Successful transition • 25%
Ongoing conflict • 25%
Failed transition • 25%
Partial transition • 25%
Relations remain the same • 25%
Formal diplomatic relations established • 25%
Relations worsen • 25%
Informal relations improved • 25%
Diplomatic stalemate • 25%
Iran reduces presence • 25%
Iran maintains current stance • 25%
Iran increases presence • 25%