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What will be the outcome of Syria's foreign relations with Lebanon by end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Improved relations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Formal agreement signed • 25%
Analysis from international relations experts and news reports
Story
Syria's Ahmed al-Sharaa Vows No Negative Interference in Lebanon After Assad's Ouster
Dec 22, 2024, 11:32 AM
Syria's new leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa, has pledged that his country will not engage in negative interference in Lebanon. During a meeting with Lebanese Druze leaders Walid and Taymour Jumblatt on Sunday, Sharaa emphasized that Syria would respect Lebanon's sovereignty, territorial integrity, and security. He stated that Syria would maintain an equal distance from all parties in Lebanon, acknowledging past fears and anxieties Syria has caused in the country. This commitment comes as part of broader efforts to normalize relations with neighboring countries following the overthrow of former President Bashar al-Assad by Sharaa's group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), earlier this month.
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Diplomatic relations established • 25%
Continued non-engagement • 25%
Increased tensions or conflict • 25%
Other • 25%
Improved relations with Iran • 25%
Improved relations with Western countries • 25%
Strained relations with neighboring countries • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Strengthened relations • 25%
Weakened relations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Severed relations • 25%
Strengthened relations • 25%
Weakened relations • 25%
No change • 25%
Diplomatic fallout • 25%
Aligns with Russia • 25%
Aligns with USA • 25%
Aligns with EU • 25%
Maintains neutrality • 25%
Formal diplomatic relations established • 25%
Humanitarian aid agreement • 25%
Military cooperation • 25%
No significant outcome • 25%
Aligns with Iran • 25%
Aligns with Arab countries • 25%
Maintains neutrality • 25%
Other alignment • 25%
Peace Agreement • 25%
Ongoing Conflict • 25%
Partition of Syria • 25%
Other • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Democratic government • 25%
Military rule • 25%
Civil war continues • 25%
Other • 25%
Bashar al-Assad remains • 25%
New leader emerges • 25%
Interim government formed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Status quo • 25%
Significant gains by opposition • 25%
Government regains full control • 25%
Peace agreement reached • 25%
Opposition victory • 25%
Government retains power • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
New government established • 25%
Ongoing civil conflict • 25%
International intervention • 25%
Other • 25%
Complete Rebel Victory • 25%
Partial Rebel Control • 25%
Government Regains Control • 25%
Stalemate • 25%