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What will be the outcome of the Lebanese and Syrian border situation by June 30, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Resolution and return to normalcy • 25%
Escalation into further conflict • 25%
Continued stalemate • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official statements from Lebanese or Syrian governments or credible news outlets
Story
Syria Imposes Entry Restrictions on Lebanese Requiring Residency, Following Border Clash
Jan 3, 2025, 11:12 AM
The Syrian government has imposed entry restrictions on Lebanese citizens, allowing only those with Syrian residency documents to enter the country. This decision follows a border clash between the Lebanese army and Syrian armed groups, as reported by Lebanese security sources. The Lebanese army announced an engagement with Syrians at the border, resulting in an injury and a subsequent skirmish. Syrian authorities have begun enforcing this new policy, turning back Lebanese nationals without residency permits. The Lebanese Internal Security Forces have advised citizens against traveling to Syria due to these recent developments. Additionally, Syrian military operations have deployed reinforcements to the border with Lebanon to control the situation. There are indications that Syria might be imposing a reciprocal visa scheme on Lebanese citizens.
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No significant change • 25%
Relations worsen significantly • 25%
Relations remain tense • 25%
Relations improve significantly • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Formal agreement signed • 25%
Assad remains in power • 25%
Rebels establish new government • 25%
Stalemate situation • 25%
Rebel forces take control • 25%
Assad Regime remains in power • 25%
International intervention leads to resolution • 25%
Stalemate with no clear control • 25%
International intervention leads to new governance • 25%
Other • 25%
Peace Agreement • 25%
Partition of Syria • 25%
Ongoing Conflict • 25%
Increased military presence • 25%
Partial disarmament • 25%
No significant disarmament • 25%
Complete disarmament of Hezbollah • 25%
Stalemate with no significant territorial changes • 25%
Opposition captures Damascus • 25%
Opposition fails to capture any major cities • 25%
Opposition captures other major cities but not Damascus • 25%
Extended Presence • 25%
Other • 25%
Partial Withdrawal • 25%
Full Withdrawal • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Peace talks initiated • 25%
No progress • 25%
Other diplomatic outcomes • 25%
Increased tensions with Russia • 25%
Other • 25%
No significant international response • 25%
UN condemnation • 25%
New agreement • 25%
Ceasefire violated • 25%
Partial compliance • 25%
Ceasefire holds • 25%
New security agreement reached • 25%
Israel withdraws • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Continued occupation • 25%