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Outcome of Syrian conflict by end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Status quo • 25%
Significant gains by opposition • 25%
Government regains full control • 25%
Peace agreement reached • 25%
Opposition victory • 25%
Government retains power • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
New government established • 25%
Ongoing civil conflict • 25%
International intervention • 25%
Other • 25%
Complete Rebel Victory • 25%
Partial Rebel Control • 25%
Government Regains Control • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Reports from international news agencies and expert analysis on the political and military situation in Syria
Story
Russia Evacuates Assad to Moscow as Damascus Falls, Rejects His 'Mini-State' Plan
Dec 11, 2024, 12:16 PM
Russian intelligence operatives organized the escape of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to Moscow after persuading him that he would lose the fight against rapidly advancing rebel forces, including Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. According to sources cited by Bloomberg, Russia concluded that Assad could not win the war against the opposition and rejected his proposal to create a 'mini-state' in Syria's coastal region. They offered him and his family safe passage out of Syria. Russian agents evacuated Assad through a Russian airbase in Syria, turning off the aircraft's transponder to avoid detection.
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Status quo maintained • 25%
Government gains significant ground • 25%
Rebels gain significant ground • 25%
Peace agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
Regime Change • 25%
Continued Conflict • 25%
Other • 25%
Assad regime remains in power • 25%
New government established • 25%
Ongoing conflict with no clear resolution • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Peace Agreement • 25%
Ongoing Conflict • 25%
Partition of Syria • 25%
Other • 25%
Assad Regime Victory • 25%
Rebel Victory • 25%
Stalemate/Status Quo • 25%
Peace Agreement • 25%
Assad remains in power • 25%
Rebels establish new government • 25%
Stalemate situation • 25%
International intervention leads to resolution • 25%
Assad Regime remains in power • 25%
Rebel forces take control • 25%
International intervention leads to new governance • 25%
Stalemate with no clear control • 25%
Assad regime retains control • 25%
Opposition takes control • 25%
Coalition government formed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Peace agreement reached • 25%
Stalemate continues • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Bashar al-Assad remains • 25%
New leader emerges • 25%
Interim government formed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Increased Stability • 25%
Continued Chaos • 25%
Withdrawal of U.S. Forces • 25%
Strengthened U.S. Presence • 25%
Democratic government established • 25%
Military junta takes control • 25%
Interim government with international oversight • 25%
Continued civil unrest with no clear leadership • 25%
New government formed • 25%
Prolonged conflict • 25%
International intervention • 25%
Other outcome • 25%