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What will the IAEA's assessment of Iran's nuclear program status be by June 30, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Progress halted • 25%
Progress slowed • 25%
Progress unchanged • 25%
Progress accelerated • 25%
IAEA reports or official statements
Story
IAEA Chief Grossi: Iran Nears Military Uranium Enrichment, 2015 Nuclear Deal Obsolete, New Agreement Needed
Dec 17, 2024, 02:06 PM
Rafael Grossi, the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), stated that the 2015 nuclear agreement with Iran is no longer applicable due to significant advancements in Iran's uranium enrichment capabilities. Grossi warned that Iran is nearing military-level uranium enrichment, which could enable the country to develop nuclear weapons. He emphasized the necessity for a new agreement that reflects the current realities of Iran's nuclear program. Various reports indicate that Iran's progress in nuclear technology is accelerating, raising concerns about potential military applications. The IAEA has called for international cooperation to address these developments, as Iran approaches the threshold of becoming a nuclear-armed state.
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No change in enrichment • 25%
Other significant finding • 25%
Decrease in enrichment • 25%
Increase in enrichment • 25%
Nuclear material storage • 25%
Compliance with monitoring • 25%
Enrichment levels • 25%
Other issues • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Iran non-compliant • 25%
Iran partially compliant • 25%
Iran in compliance • 25%
Reduced nuclear activities • 25%
Nuclear program dismantled • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Significant advancements • 25%
Stable enrichment levels • 25%
Increased enrichment levels • 25%
Decreased enrichment levels • 25%
New violations discovered • 25%
Non-compliant • 25%
Review postponed • 25%
Partially compliant • 25%
Compliant • 25%
Inspection Challenges • 25%
Sanction Implications • 25%
Compliance Progress • 25%
Enrichment Levels • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Military action taken • 25%
Sanctions increased • 25%
New agreement reached • 25%
Non-compliance • 25%
Withdrawal from agreements • 25%
Full compliance • 25%
Partial compliance • 25%
Military action taken • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
New diplomatic agreement • 25%
New sanctions imposed on Iran • 25%
Iran complies with nuclear deal terms • 25%
Military intervention occurs • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Military intervention • 25%
Return to JCPoA • 25%
New agreement • 25%
Continued escalation • 25%