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What will be the outcome of negotiations for a new nuclear agreement with Iran by December 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
New agreement reached • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Negotiations failed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official statements or agreements published by involved parties
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IAEA Chief Grossi: Iran Nears Military Uranium Enrichment, 2015 Nuclear Deal Obsolete, New Agreement Needed
Dec 17, 2024, 02:06 PM
Rafael Grossi, the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), stated that the 2015 nuclear agreement with Iran is no longer applicable due to significant advancements in Iran's uranium enrichment capabilities. Grossi warned that Iran is nearing military-level uranium enrichment, which could enable the country to develop nuclear weapons. He emphasized the necessity for a new agreement that reflects the current realities of Iran's nuclear program. Various reports indicate that Iran's progress in nuclear technology is accelerating, raising concerns about potential military applications. The IAEA has called for international cooperation to address these developments, as Iran approaches the threshold of becoming a nuclear-armed state.
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Negotiations Extended • 25%
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Escalation to military conflict • 25%
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New nuclear agreement • 25%
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Status quo maintained • 25%
Sanctions increased • 25%
Comprehensive agreement • 25%
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No negotiations • 25%
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No action taken • 25%
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Other • 25%
Successful agreement • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Iran complies with nuclear deal terms • 25%
Military intervention occurs • 25%
New sanctions imposed on Iran • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Talks break down • 25%
Talks continue without agreement • 25%
New agreement reached • 25%
