Market
What will the IAEA report about Iran's nuclear activities in its next quarterly report of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased enrichment levels • 25%
Decreased enrichment levels • 25%
Stable enrichment levels • 25%
New violations discovered • 25%
IAEA quarterly report
Story
Iran Dramatically Increases 60% Uranium Enrichment Capacity at Fordow, IAEA Chief Grossi Reveals
Dec 6, 2024, 01:52 PM
Iran is dramatically increasing its capacity to produce uranium enriched up to 60% purity, which is close to weapons-grade levels. According to International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Grossi, Iran's production rate of highly enriched uranium is expected to increase seven or eight times from the previous rate of 5-7 kilograms per month. Grossi revealed in an interview with Reuters that Iran informed the IAEA it intends to feed uranium enriched up to 20%, rather than the current 5%, into two interconnected centrifuge cascades at its Fordow facility, further enriching to up to 60% purity. The IAEA verified this development on December 5. A U.S. intelligence report also indicates that Iran is capable of producing more than 12 nuclear bombs if it enriches its uranium stockpiles.
View original story
Similar markets
Decrease in enrichment • 25%
Other significant finding • 25%
No change in enrichment • 25%
Increase in enrichment • 25%
Iran in compliance • 25%
Iran partially compliant • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Iran non-compliant • 25%
Nuclear material storage • 25%
Other issues • 25%
Enrichment levels • 25%
Compliance with monitoring • 25%
Progress halted • 25%
Progress slowed • 25%
Progress unchanged • 25%
Progress accelerated • 25%
Compliance Progress • 25%
Inspection Challenges • 25%
Sanction Implications • 25%
Enrichment Levels • 25%
Increased enrichment to 60% • 25%
Reduction in enrichment levels • 25%
Increased enrichment to 90% • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Review postponed • 25%
Compliant • 25%
Non-compliant • 25%
Partially compliant • 25%
Significant advancements • 25%
Nuclear program dismantled • 25%
Reduced nuclear activities • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Maintain current stance • 25%
Pursue nuclear weapons • 25%
Enhance nuclear energy use • 25%
Seek diplomatic resolution • 25%
Significant acceleration • 25%
Other • 25%
Significant deceleration • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increase enrichment levels • 25%
Maintain current levels • 25%
Other policy change • 25%
Decrease enrichment levels • 25%