Market
What will be Yoon Suk Yeol's political outcome by December 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Resigns from politics • 25%
Continues political career • 25%
Banned from holding office • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official political developments reported by credible news outlets
Story
Yoon Suk Yeol Accused of Authorizing Military Force in Failed Martial Law Attempt Amid Third Summons and Arrest Warrant Possibility
Dec 28, 2024, 10:07 PM
Yoon Suk Yeol, South Korea's impeached president, has been accused of authorizing the military to use force during his failed attempt to impose martial law. According to a report from South Korean prosecutors, Yoon permitted the military to fire their weapons if necessary to enter parliament amid his efforts to impose martial law. This revelation has intensified scrutiny on Yoon, who has been under investigation for his actions related to the martial law declaration. Additionally, Yoon has refused to comply with a third summons from the Corruption Investigation Office, raising the possibility of an arrest warrant being issued against him. His refusal to appear for questioning is part of an ongoing investigation into allegations of insurrection and abuse of power linked to his martial law bid, which has been described as a significant political crisis in South Korea.
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Resigns from politics • 25%
Maintains position • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Arrested • 25%
Resigns • 25%
Arrested • 25%
Impeached and Removed • 25%
Remains President • 25%
Successfully completes term • 25%
Other • 25%
Resigns • 25%
Impeached • 25%
Yoon exiled or flees the country • 25%
Yoon remains at large • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Yoon arrested and charged • 25%
Acquitted and Reinstated • 25%
Resigns from Politics • 25%
Exiled • 25%
Convicted and Imprisoned • 25%
Still under investigation • 25%
Arrested • 25%
Exonerated • 25%
Other • 25%
Other significant political developments • 25%
Yoon remains in office without further incidents • 25%
Yoon faces successful impeachment • 25%
Yoon resigns voluntarily • 25%
Remains President • 25%
Impeached • 25%
Resigned • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
New elections held • 25%
Yoon Suk Yeol reinstated • 25%
Other • 25%
Interim government established • 25%
Impeachment invalidated • 25%
Yoon arrested • 25%
Protests continue without resolution • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Reinstated • 25%
Resigns before decision • 25%
Removed from office • 25%
Other • 25%