Market
What will be Yoon Suk Yeol's political status by December 31, 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Arrested • 25%
Resigns from politics • 25%
Maintains position • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Reports from South Korean political analysts or major news outlets
Story
South Korea's Yoon Suk Yeol Authorized Military to Fire During Martial Law Attempt; Faces Third Summons and Possible Arrest
Dec 28, 2024, 01:10 PM
South Korean prosecutors have reported that suspended President Yoon Suk Yeol authorized the military to use firearms if necessary to enter the National Assembly during his unsuccessful attempt to impose martial law. This revelation comes as part of an ongoing investigation into Yoon's actions surrounding the martial law bid, which began preparations in November and was reportedly considered as early as March. Prosecutors allege that Yoon instructed military forces to 'break down the door' and act with lethal force if required. Furthermore, Yoon has refused to comply with a third summons for questioning related to these allegations, raising the possibility of a warrant for his arrest. The situation has escalated tensions within South Korea's political landscape, as Yoon faces scrutiny over his controversial directives during a time of crisis.
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Resigns • 25%
Impeached and Removed • 25%
Arrested • 25%
Remains President • 25%
Resigns from politics • 25%
Continues political career • 25%
Banned from holding office • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Arrested • 25%
Still under investigation • 25%
Other • 25%
Exonerated • 25%
New Elections Called • 25%
Reinstated • 25%
Removed from Office • 25%
Status Unchanged • 25%
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Impeached • 25%
Resigned • 25%
Remains President • 25%
Impeached and Removed • 25%
Remains in Office • 25%
Other • 25%
Resigns • 25%
Impeached by National Assembly • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Remains in office • 25%
Resigns from office • 25%
Acquitted and Reinstated • 25%
Exiled • 25%
Convicted and Imprisoned • 25%
Resigns from Politics • 25%
Successfully completes term • 25%
Resigns • 25%
Impeached • 25%
Other • 25%
Yoon remains at large • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Yoon exiled or flees the country • 25%
Yoon arrested and charged • 25%
Yoon remains in office without further incidents • 25%
Other significant political developments • 25%
Yoon resigns voluntarily • 25%
Yoon faces successful impeachment • 25%