Market
Political outcome for President Yoon Suk-yeol by end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Successfully completes term • 25%
Impeached • 25%
Resigns • 25%
Other • 25%
Official announcements and political developments in South Korea
Story
Ex-Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun Arrested for Treason Over South Korea's Martial Law Crisis
Dec 8, 2024, 01:20 AM
South Korean prosecutors have arrested former Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun on charges of treason related to his alleged involvement in President Yoon Suk-yeol's brief and controversial declaration of martial law on December 3. Kim is suspected of advising President Yoon to impose martial law, which plunged the country into political turmoil. He was detained after six hours of questioning, with prosecutors citing the risk of evidence destruction, and his mobile phone was confiscated. The investigation into the circumstances surrounding the martial law declaration marks a significant escalation in South Korea's political crisis, with treason charges carrying a maximum penalty of death. Kim is the first figure detained over the case.
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Arrested • 25%
Remains in office • 25%
Resigns • 25%
Impeached • 25%
Banned from holding office • 25%
Continues political career • 25%
Resigns from politics • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Acquitted and Reinstated • 25%
Convicted and Imprisoned • 25%
Exiled • 25%
Resigns from Politics • 25%
Remains President • 25%
Impeached • 25%
Resigned • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
New presidential election called • 25%
Yoon Suk Yeol faces trial • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Yoon Suk Yeol reinstated • 25%
Yoon resigns voluntarily • 25%
Other significant political developments • 25%
Yoon remains in office without further incidents • 25%
Yoon faces successful impeachment • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Yoon arrested and charged • 25%
Yoon exiled or flees the country • 25%
Yoon remains at large • 25%
New elections held • 25%
Other • 25%
Yoon Suk Yeol reinstated • 25%
Interim government established • 25%
Escapes or flees the country • 25%
Other • 25%
Remains free and not detained • 25%
Arrested and detained • 25%
Arrested • 25%
Other • 25%
Still under investigation • 25%
Exonerated • 25%
Military intervention • 25%
Resolution with reforms • 25%
Continuation of current situation • 25%
Other • 25%
Prime Minister Han Duck-soo becomes president • 25%
Yoon Suk Yeol reinstated • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
New presidential elections called • 25%