Market
What will be the outcome of the protests regarding Yoon Suk Yeol by June 30, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Yoon arrested • 25%
Impeachment invalidated • 25%
Protests continue without resolution • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official announcements or major news outlets covering the resolution of protests
Story
South Koreans Protest as Impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol Defies Arrest Warrant
Jan 11, 2025, 10:12 AM
Thousands of South Koreans have taken to the streets in protest as impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol refuses to comply with a court-issued arrest warrant. Demonstrators from opposing groups gathered in Seoul, with some demanding Yoon's arrest and others calling for his impeachment to be declared invalid. The unrest follows Yoon's directive to soldiers to storm parliament in an attempt to prevent a vote against martial law, which led to his impeachment. Yoon, facing charges of insurrection, remains barricaded in his official residence, which has been fortified with barbed wire and vehicles. The presidential security chief resigned amid questions about blocking Yoon's arrest, and Acting Leader Deputy Prime Minister Choi Sang-mok has urged lawmakers to resolve the crisis through an independent investigation.
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Protests escalate • 25%
Protests end • 25%
Protests continue • 25%
Protests diminish • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
President Yoon resigns • 25%
Martial law lifted, Yoon remains • 25%
Pro-Yoon protests prevail • 25%
Protests remain evenly matched • 25%
Protests dissipate • 25%
Anti-Yoon protests prevail • 25%
Protests subside with no major change • 25%
Protests lead to President Yoon's resignation • 25%
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Yoon remains at large • 25%
Yoon arrested and charged • 25%
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Settlement Reached • 25%
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Ongoing Investigation • 25%
Arrest Warrant Issued • 25%
Yoon resigns • 25%
Protests intensify • 25%
Protests dissipate • 25%
Government crackdown • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Trial ongoing • 25%
Other • 25%
Conviction • 25%
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No charges • 25%
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Convicted • 25%
Acquitted • 25%
Charges dropped • 25%
Convicted • 25%
Trial ongoing • 25%