Market
What will be TikTok's operational status in the U.S. by the end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
TikTok banned • 25%
TikTok sold and operates under new ownership • 25%
TikTok operates without changes • 25%
TikTok operates with restrictions • 25%
Operational without restrictions • 25%
Operational with restrictions • 25%
Banned • 25%
Operational under new ownership • 25%
TikTok's operational status in the U.S. as reported by major news outlets
Story
TikTok Restores U.S. Service After Trump Pledges to Pause Ban
Jan 19, 2025, 05:43 PM
TikTok announced it is restoring service in the United States after being blocked the previous evening. The company thanked President-elect Donald Trump for providing the necessary clarity and assurance to its service providers that they will not face penalties for supporting TikTok. TikTok stated that Trump plans to issue an Executive Order pausing the ban upon taking office, and it will work with him on a long-term solution that keeps the app operational in the U.S., where it serves over 170 million users and supports over 7 million small businesses. The platform had gone offline Saturday night but is now coming back online for users.
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Continues Ban • 25%
Resumes Operations • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Partial Operations • 25%
Continues operation without interruption • 25%
New ownership announced • 25%
Permanently banned • 25%
Temporarily suspended • 25%
Permanently shut down • 33%
Continues operations • 33%
Temporarily suspended • 33%
Operates independently • 25%
Acquired by a US company • 25%
Continues with ByteDance • 25%
Ceases US operations • 25%
Operations ceased • 25%
Fully operational • 25%
Partially restricted • 25%
Banned • 25%
Other status • 25%
TikTok resumes operations • 25%
TikTok remains banned • 25%
TikTok divested to a U.S. company • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Continues under ByteDance • 25%
Sold to another company • 25%
Under new joint venture • 25%
Operational with restrictions • 25%
Allowed to operate with restrictions • 25%
Allowed to operate without restrictions • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Banned completely • 25%
Sold to a U.S. company • 25%
Banned • 25%
Remains operational without changes • 25%
Banned in the U.S. • 25%
Operational changes without sale • 25%
Sold to U.S. company • 25%
Remains with ByteDance • 25%
Shuts down on January 19 • 25%
Continues operation without restrictions • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Continues operation with restrictions • 25%
Remains banned • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Sold to a US company • 25%
Resumes operations • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
ByteDance sells TikTok U.S. operations • 25%
TikTok remains shut down in the U.S. • 25%
TikTok resumes operations under new ownership • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Banned • 25%
Other • 25%
Sold to U.S. Entity • 25%
Sold to a US company • 25%
Operations continue as is • 25%
Granted Extension • 25%
