Market
Will a long-term solution be reached between TikTok and the U.S. government by June 30, 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official announcements from TikTok or the U.S. government
Story
TikTok Restores U.S. Service After Trump Pledges to Pause Ban
Jan 19, 2025, 05:43 PM
TikTok announced it is restoring service in the United States after being blocked the previous evening. The company thanked President-elect Donald Trump for providing the necessary clarity and assurance to its service providers that they will not face penalties for supporting TikTok. TikTok stated that Trump plans to issue an Executive Order pausing the ban upon taking office, and it will work with him on a long-term solution that keeps the app operational in the U.S., where it serves over 170 million users and supports over 7 million small businesses. The platform had gone offline Saturday night but is now coming back online for users.
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TikTok remains operational with no changes • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
TikTok banned in the U.S. • 25%
TikTok divests U.S. operations • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Other agreement • 25%
50% U.S. ownership joint venture • 25%
Complete sale to a U.S. entity • 25%
Continued operation under current ownership • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Ban TikTok • 25%
Allow with restrictions • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
No action • 25%
Partnership with US company • 25%
Sale to US company • 25%
No change • 25%
Ban implemented • 25%
No resolution • 25%
Ongoing legal battle • 25%
Divestment completed • 25%
Operational restrictions imposed • 25%
Temporarily suspended • 25%
Banned • 25%
Continues under new ownership • 25%
Continues under current ownership • 25%
Conditional Operation Allowed • 25%
No Decision Made • 25%
Ban Implemented • 25%
Ban Lifted • 25%
Banned • 25%
Not banned, no divestment • 25%
Not banned, but ByteDance divests • 25%
Other outcome • 25%